Tag Archives: San Francisco 49ers

Redskins vs. 49ers preview: By the Numbers

If you’re a Redskins fan, you might want to brace yourself — because this isn’t going to be pretty.

Team Record:

Washington Redskins: 3-4
San Francisco 49ers: 6-1

Quarterbacks:

Rex Grossman + John Beck, Washington: 134 completions out of 223 attempts (56.8% completion), 1736 yards, 7 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 67.7 QB Rating
Alex Smith, San Francisco: 115 completions out of 182 attempts (63.2% completion), 1267 yards, 9 TD’s, 2 INT’s, 95.7 QB Rating

Advantage: Let’s see, Smith has a better QB rating, better completion percentage, more touchdown passes, and less interceptions. I’ll go out on a limb and give this one to San Francisco

Runing Backs:

Tim Hightower + Ryan Torain + Roy Helu, Washington: 150 attempts, 618 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, 2 TDs, 4 carries for 20+ yards, 0 fumbles lost.
Frank Gore, San Francisco: 140 attempts, 675 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 5 TD’s, 7 carries for 20+ yards, 2 fumbles lost

Advantage: Frank Gore has more yards, touchdowns, and runs of 20+ yards on less carries than the entire Redskins backfield combined. Again, San Francisco, by a landslide.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends: Both teams have had to deal with injuries here, so we’ll look at the top 3 receivers plus tight end for each team.

Washington:

Jabar Gaffney: 27 recs, 401 yards, 14.9 ypc, 1 TD, 6 receptions for 20+ yards
Terrance Austin: 6 reces, 80 yards, 13.3 ypc, 0 TD’s, 1 reception for 20+ yards
Anthony Armstrong: 5 recs, 47 yards, 9.4 ypc, 1 TD, 0 receptions for 20+ yards

Fred Davis: 36 receptions, 517 yards, 14.4 ypc, 2 TD’s, 10 receptions for 20+ yards

San Francisco:

Michael Crabtree: 25 recs, 263 yards, 10.5 ypc, 1 TD, 4 receptions for 20+ yards
Delanie Walker: 11 recs, 114 yards, 10.4 ypc, 3 TD’s, 2 receptions for 20+ yards
Braylon Edwards: 8 recs, 90 yards, 11.3 ypc, 0 TD’s, 1 reception for 20+ yards

Vernon Davis: 27 recs, 298 yards, 11.0 ypc, 3 TD’s, 6 reception for 20+ yards

Advantage: San Francisco. Crabtree is more talented than any receiver on the Redskins roster, though he just hasn’t seemed to get his act altogether yet. Crabtree and Edwards have both been slowed by injuries this season, but are monumentally more talented than any receiver the Redskins would put on the field on Sunday. On the flipside, Fred Davis has already become one of the 10 best tight ends in the league, but there may not be a more talented tight end than Vernon Davis. Vernon’s stats might not be as good as Fred’s, but that’s because the 49ers don’t have to lean on him nearly as much as the Redskins do on Fred Davis.

Offensive Line:

Washington: 23 sacks allowed, 3 out of 5 opening day starters still playing
San Francisco: 17 sacks allowed, 4 out of 5 opening day starters still playing

Advantage: San Francisco

Rushing Defense:

Rushing Yards allowed Per Game

Washington: 21st in the NFL (allows 120.4 yards per game)
San Francisco: 1st in the NFL (allows 73.4 yards per game)

Rushing Touchdowns allowed:

Washington: 6 (16th in the NFL)
San Francisco: 0 (1st in the NFL)

Games in 2011 where opposing running back has gained 100+ yards:

Washington: 2 (Philadelphia, Buffalo)
San Francisco: 0

Advantage: Again, San Francisco by an embarassing margin. The 49ers haven’t given up a 100-yard rushing effort to an opposing running back over the past 29 games, the longest active streak in the NFL. They’ve held very solid running backs like LeSean McCoy, LeGarrette Blount, and Jahvid Best to under 40 yards rushing for the entire game. On the flipside, the Redskins gave up 120 yards to Fred Jackson, 104 yards to the the duo of Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and 126 yards to McCoy over the past three weeks alone.

Passing Defense:

Yards Per game:

Washington: 12th in the NFL (allows 223.1 yards per game)
San Francisco: 21st in the NFL (allows 255.7 yards per game)

Sacks:

Washington: 23 total (5th in the NFL), lead by LB Brian Orakpo (4.5)
San Francisco: 21 total (7th in the NFL), lead by LB Aldon Smith (6.5)

Interceptions:

Washington: 6 (21st in NFL), lead by LB London Fletcher (2)
San Francisco: 9 (7th in the NFL), lead by CB Carlos Rogers (3).

Advantage: Push. San Francisco might allow a few more yards through the air, but they get after the quarterback and intercept the opposing passer at a better clip than Washington does.

Total Defense:

Total Yards per game:

Washington: 343.6 (14th in the NFL)
San Francisco: 329.1 (10th in the NFL)

Points Allowed:

Washington: 19.9 per game (7th in the NFL)
San Francisco: 15.3 per game (1st in the NFL)

Turnover Ratio:

Washington: -6 (27th in the NFL)
San Francisco: +10 (2nd in the NFL)

Advantage: San Francisco. Face it, the 49ers Defense is just playing better than the Redskins defense overall. In the six games the 49ers have won this season, their opponent has not scored more than two touchdowns. In five of their seven games, they’ve given up less than 20 points (including 10 or less points in three of their last five games).

Bottom Line:

Watching this game will probably be incredibly frustrating for Redskins fans, because the 49ers are winning in the way that us Redskins fans have desperately yearned for: running the ball down the opponents throats, keeping them out of the endzone, and taking the football away from them.

If Redskins fans are hoping this is the week that the offense comes to life, they might not want to hold their breath. Judging by the stats coming into this game, John Beck is going to get virtually no help from his running game on Sunday. The Redskins are already in the bottom seven in the NFL in running the football (averaging less than 96 yards per game on the ground), and they’ll essentially trying to run against a brick wall. The 49ers will absolutely sell out to stop the run, knowing that Beck won’t have time to throw nor the weapons downfield to beat them. Seriously, if you’re the 49ers, why wouldnt you blitz Beck every play? His receivers are too young and raw to really recognize the blitz and make route adjustments accordingly, the entire left side of the offensive line will have backups playing, and it’s painfully apparent that Beck is nowhere near comfortable commanding this offense yet.

If the Redskins win, it looks like it’s going to have to be an ugly one, with the defense shutting down Frank Gore (he accounts for over 45% of the 49ers offensive touches), getting a takeaway or two, and maybe even having to put the ball in the endzone themselves.

This preview was cross-posted on RedskinsGab.com

The Redskins vs. The Cowboys preview: Another win changes things.

Almost every Sunday, I try and meet up with my parents to have dinner with them, especially since I have the good fortune of living close by to them. I’m an only child, and even tough I’m married and have enough things going on to keep me plenty busy, spending a few hours on a Sunday evening hanging out and catching up with my family is the absolute least thing I can do.

After all, the person I am today is almost entirely a reflection of the way I was brought up by parents. And that fact absolutely extends to Football, or more specifically, my/our love for the Redskins. Again, the fact that the blood coursing through my veins runs distinctly runs burgundy and gold is due, in large part, to my parents sharing that same passion and loyalty towards the Redskins, and teaching me those same virtues about being a fan.

My mom always felt that fans of the Dallas Cowboys are less welcome in her home than even door-to-door salesmen, uninvited houseguests, or termites. My dad always believed that the pulse of Washington DC ebbed and flowed with the success of the Redskins. He always joked how people just naturally seemed to be happier, friendlier, and in a better mood overall the Monday morning after a Redskins win.

So over dinner last night, we joked that, with the Redskins being 2-0, and the level of optimism and excitement surrounding this team, if Washington beats Dallas tonight, Redskins fans are going to start figuring out how much Super Bowl tickets will cost, and whether they’ll able to take off a few days from work sometime around the first weekend of February, 2012

As a fan – and as a passionate one, no less – it happens. You start thinking ahead. You start looking at the schedule, and start seeing W’s where you may orginally have seen L’s.Even though the leaves haven’t even started changing colors yet, you start predicting playoff matchups and figuring out the ramifications of home field advantages.

Especially when it’s coming up on four years since your team has been to the postseason.

Yes, the Redskins are 2-0. Yes, they’re the only team in the NFC East with an undefeated record. Yes, they’re one of only four teams in the NFL that are undefeated, period. But the somewhat pessimistic, but masquerading as realistic, part of me realizes that, after all, the season is only two games old. As good as we feel about the two wins this team has racked up, we have to remind ourselves, constantly, that it’s still only two games. There’s 14 games, 10 teams, and three months that this team still has to get through.

And yet, going 3-0 – even if it’s just another early season in in September – feels like it changes everything.

Whether or not we’re still giddy from the euphoria of these first two wins, things just feel different, in a special way, with this team. It’s only September, yet they’ve already beaten the Giants by two touchdowns, something they haven’t done in six years. They’ve already showed you how they’ll play with their backs against the wall, having erased an eight-point fourth quarter deficit to came back to win the game, something they haven’t done in I can’t tell you how long.

The last time we felt this way about the Redskins was probably 2005, the second year of the Gibbs II regime. The team started the first half of the season 5-3 (including 3-0 through their first three games), lost three heartbreakers, and then ran the table to get to their only double-digit win season that decade. Like that team, if the Redskins can start 3-0, we could very well be looking at a team with a 6-2 or even a 7-1 record come midseason

There’s plenty of reasons to believe the Redskins should win tonight, without being biased. They’re playing a Dallas team tonight that’s both struggling and wounded. Four of the Cowboys five best players on offense are either not playing tonight (Miles Austin) or are still struggling with injuries (Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant). Their offensive line has been crap, getting almost no movement along the line of scrimmage. Their defense is giving up over 25 points per game, with a secondary that’s been busy covering no one.

You just know that the Redskins will happily tell the Cowboys: “Make Tony Romo – the guy with cracked ribs and a punctured lung that we’re not really sure has completed healed yet – beat us. We dare you to.” You know Jim Haslett will bring the heat, and tell anyone who hits Romo to make sure Romo felt it. The Cowboys refuse to run the ball anyway (30th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, 32nd in yards per attempt), so there’s little reason to believe the the Redskins defense won’t spend the evening teeing off on Romo’s midsection, hoping he coughs up the football (he’s turned it over three times in two games already).

So, what if the Redskins win tonight? You never want to think ahead, but as a fan, you’re lying to yourself if you say you aren’t.

The Redskins would be 3-0, and would send Dallas to 1-2. The Philadelphia Eagles – the supposed “dream team” – are already at 1-2, with Michael Vick’s body slowly falling apart like it was a piece of IKEA furniture assembled by a bunch of drunken frat boys. The only other team with a winning record in the NFC, the Redskins already beat by two touchdowns.

Next week, the Redskins take on the St. Louis Rams, a team that’s scored a grand total of three offensive touchdowns, and is getting beaten by an average of 20 points per game this season. Steven Jackson is already dealing with a nagging leg injury, Sam Bradford’s receivers can’t catch anything, and their defense is giving up huge plays in the passing game, especially since it’s on the field for most of the game already.

Another win there would put them at 4-0 as they head into the early bye week, with a huge matchup against Philadelphia looming on the other side. The Redskins could very well be getting the Eagles without Michael Vick, who’d be just 22 days removed from an broken right (non-throwing) hand that’s projected to take “three to four weeks” to heal.

And after that? They play at Carolina, a team that’s a lot more dangerous than people gave them credit for – how many people realize Cam Newton ran third in the NFL in passing yardage, as of this morning? – but still very beatable. They’ll then play Buffalo on the road (a game that will take place in Toronto), San Francisco at home (even at 2-1, I still stay they’re one of the five worst teams in the league), and then Miami on the road (another one of the five worst teams in the league; they’re probably in the bottom three, actually).

Even if they somehow lose to a Vick-less Philadelphia, and maybe one more team (odds on favorite, right now, would be Buffalo), that’s still 6-2 by midseason. There can’t be a single fan who wouldn’t gladly take the Redskins having only two losses around the middle of November. How many people around the country believed the Redskins wouldn’t win six games all season?

It starts tonight. Tonight’s game is a fulcrum, a springboard for the rest of the season. Yes, there’s few things better than raining on yet another Cowboys home opener on Monday Night Football (just like in 2005), but it’ll mean more when you look at the bigger picture.

This one can shape the rest of this season. With the entire country watching, let’s see what happens.

The Pundit’s Predictions and Picks for the 2011 NFL Season

For those of you who don’t know – and who am I kidding, that’s probably everyone reading this blog – I (somehow) managed to correctly predict the participants of Super Bowl XLVIbefore the season started. Yeah, I was batting around .500 in terms of predicted division winners (thank you, Mike Singletary and Norv Turner), Wild Card participants (another thanks to Wade Phillips and Tony Sparano), and completely whiffed on my rookies of the year predictions, but hey, who’s counting?

Oh, right. You are.

Nevertheless, here’s my attempt to make lightning strike twice (because clearly, that happens very often), by providing you with my predictions for the upcoming 2011 NFL season, for your reading pleasure.

NFC East

Philadelphia       11-5
Dallas                    10-6*
Washington        9-7
NY Giants            5-11

NFC North

Green Bay          11-5
Minnesota         9-7*
Detroit                9-7
Chicago              7-9

NFC South

New Orleans     12-4
Tampa Bay        9-7
Atlanta               6-10
Carolina             4-12

NFC West

Arizona                10-6
St. Louis               8-8
Seattle                  5-11
San Francisco   2-14

NFC Wild Card Round

Green Bay over Minnesota
Dallas over Arizona

NFC Semi-Finals

Green Bay over Philadelphia
New Orleans over Dallas

NFC Championship

New Orleans over Green Bay

AFC East

New England      12-4
NY Jets                11-5*
Buffalo                  6-10
Miami                   4-12

AFC North

Pittsburgh          11-5
Baltimore           10-6*
Cleveland           9-7
Cincinnati          6-10

AFC South

Indianapolis      9-7
Houston              7-9
Tennessee          7-9
Jacksonville      6-10

AFC West

San Diego            11-5
Kansas City         7-9
Oakland                7-9
Denver                 6-10

AFC Wild Card Round

Baltimore over Pittsburgh
NY Jets over Indianapolis

AFC Semi Finals

New England over NY Jets
San Diego over Baltimore

AFC Championship

New England over San Diego

Super Bowl XLVII

New Orleans over New England

In homage to Peter King’s “Ten Things I Think I Think” section of his weekly “Monday Morning Quarterback” column, here are 10 thoughts, notes, and comments about my predictions, as well as the upcoming season in general:

1. The Redskins are close, but they’re not ready for the playoffs yet. They’re certainly not going to be nearly as bad as some publications have predicted they’d be, but I think between the amount of youth this team has, plus a brutal 2011 schedule, the Redskins will be outside looking in, in terms of the postseason.Regarding the schedule, just take a look at the last seven games of the Redskins season: at home against Dallas (who I think is going to be a damn good team this year), at Seattle (even if they’re terrible, that’s the toughest place to play in the NFL), at home against the Jets (one of the top three teams in the AFC), at home against New England (my Super Bowl pick from the AFC), at New York (Washington hasn’t beaten in the Giants in New York since 2007), at home against the Vikings (they’ll be a playoff team under Leslie Frazier, even if their offensive line is terrible), and at Philadelphia (who will still have something to play for; namely, playoff positioning, and holding off Dallas from stealing the NFC East crown). That’s six games against playoff-caliber teams, out of seven.Let the kids get another year of experience, let John Beck (assuming he’s still the opening day starter for this team) get a year of comfort in this offense, and prepare for the big run to happen in 2012. The prevailing rumor is that Shanahan & Allen are preparing to make their big run next year anyway, and things look like they’ll work out that way.

2. The Philadelphia Eagles – aka “The Dream Team” – will be a one-and-done in the playoffs, once again courtesy of the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field, for each and every Eagle fan to once again witness in person. The Eagles have some incredible pieces assembled on that team, but I don’t trust that offensive line one bit, and honestly, I trust Michael Vick even less. The amount of hype and attention that Vick has been getting to date is ridiculous, especially for a guy that’s had a grand total of one playoff win in his entire career.His improvisational ability is virtually unprecedented, but if he keeps running around and trying to make something out of nothing, it’s only going to subject him to more hits.

3. The Peyton Manning situation is not good, but there’s no way I’m betting against a team led by him, even if his supporting cast is as thin as it’s been in over a decade. I think he misses a few games – somewhere between two and four is my bet – needs another week or two to get the rust off, but will managed to get the Colts to a nine-win season. That’ll be good enough to win the division (the weakest in the AFC), and to secure a first round exit at the hands of the Jets.

4. I don’t like Houston this year. Between Arian Foster’s hamstring injury and “doesn’t know what, and what not, to say via social media” issues, plus forcing the 3-4 defense on personnel that it’s not necessarily meant for (see Washington Redskins, 2010), there’s no way I can pick them to win the AFC South, even if Peyton Manning misses almost a quarter of the season.

4A. And it will cost Gary Kubiak his job.

5. Lovie Smith won’t get fired…. but there’s going to be a conversation about it

5A. Jim Caldwell won’t get fired because of the convenient excuse of Manning’s neck injury…. but there’s going to be a conversation about it. Jim Caldwell is to Tony Dungy what Rich Kotite was to Buddy Ryan.

6. Norv Turner won’t get fired, but they’ll also have a conversation about it. They axed Marty for the same thing: not being able to take an uber-talented roster to the big game.

6A. That being said, I think Phillip Rivers is going to have a boffo year: something like 4800+ yards passing, close to 35 touchdown passes, and single digit interceptions.

7. Cam Newton starts the season for the Panthers, but won’t play all 16 games. He’ll either be benched, or get injured. Or both. He’s just not ready to start in this league yet. You’ll have to look far and wide to find someone who dislikes Jimmy Clausen more than I do, but he should be the starting quarterback for this team, if nothing else but for the first few weeks of the season, at least until he takes them to something like a 1-7 record. Let’s see how Newton prepares for being the high-priced backup; we’ll learn a lot about him that way.

8. While we’re talking about  #1 overal picks: San Francisco wins the “Andrew Luck sweepstakes” by securing the worst record in the NFL, thus reuniting Luck with his old college head coach, Jim Harbaugh. They’ll narrowly edge Carolina for this “honor,”avoiding a potentially fascinating plotline of what Carolina would have done had they gotten the #1 overall pick, given that they drafted Newton last year. But, with Luck staying in the Bay area, San Francisco will also finally take pity on their fans, and mercifully end the Alex Smith era once and for all.

8A.The Miami Dolphins will get their hands on the consolation prize in the “Luck Sweepstakes”: Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones.

9. Speaking of Miami: every year, somewhere between six and eight NFL head coaches are either fired, resigned, or find new jobs. I think Dolphins Tony Sparano will be the first coach to get the axe after the season is over (if he even lasts that long). Other coaches who I think will get canned: Kubiak (as previously mentioned) Jack Del Rio (one winning season in the last 5 years), and Marvin Lewis (one winning season in the last 5 years). And in a little bit of a shocker, I think Tom Coughlin will retire when the year is over.

10. I think Jason Garrett wins coach of the year – and you have no idea how much it pains and angers me to say that. The Cowboys are a team that few people are talking about, even though you should be. Talent-wise, they’re in the upper echelon of the NFL. They went 5-3 over the last eight games of 2010. And perhaps most importantly: with all the “Dream Team” nonsense going on in Philadelphia, this is the first time in over a decade that the spotlight isn’t shining on the Cowboys. When was the last time you could say that a Dallas team this talented was actually “flying under the radar?” Jerry Jones hasn’t had to made any ridiculous statements or proclamations about the Cowboys upcoming successses, nor has he had to answer endless questions about the coache’s job security.

As a Redskins fan, I don’t like saying anything – and I mean ANYthing – nice about the Cowboys. But if there’s a darkhorse team that nobody in the NFC, or NFL overall, is talking about, it’d be them.